FUNAFUTI, Tuvalu: Tuvalu’s pro-Taiwan Prime Minister, Kausea Natano, has lost his parliamentary seat, according to election results released, raising speculation that the microstate may switch diplomatic recognition to Beijing.
The results indicated Natano’s failure to secure one of the two seats available on the main atoll of Funafuti. With only 12 nations formally recognizing Taiwan globally and Nauru recently severing diplomatic ties in favor of China, attention turns to Tuvalu as another potential candidate for a switch.
Natano, a supporter of longstanding relations with Taipei, faced challenges in Funafuti. The finance minister, Seve Paeniu, who won his election uncontested, has suggested reviewing ties with Taiwan and is expected to vie for the top leadership position. While Tuvalu has a small electorate of around 6,000 registered voters, the absence of formal political parties could slow down the process of selecting a prime minister and determining potential policy changes.
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Taiwan’s ambassador to Tuvalu, Andrew Lin, dismissed the idea of a diplomatic switch, emphasizing the enduring “very long-term friendship” between the two allies. However, China has been strategically pursuing Taiwan’s Pacific allies, successfully convincing Solomon Islands and Kiribati to switch recognition in 2019.
China claims Taiwan as part of its territory and has expressed its determination to reunify, even by force if necessary. The potential leadership change in Tuvalu may also cast uncertainty on a recent treaty with Australia, addressing climate change threats. Tuvalu faces severe vulnerability to climate change, with the majority of its landmass predicted to be underwater by 2100. The treaty with Australia, providing funding for mitigation efforts, also had geopolitical implications, including Australian commitment to defending Tuvalu in various scenarios and a say in its defence pacts, limiting security engagements with China.
The shift in Tuvalu’s diplomatic stance could have broader implications for regional dynamics and alliances, as Pacific nations navigate their relationships with major powers amid geopolitical tensions.”
