WASHINGTON, USA: Former President Donald Trump and some of his allies have expressed the desire for a swift declaration of results on Election Night, US press reported on Monday. The US presidential election process is complicated by a combination of factors, including legal restrictions, logistical challenges, and varying counting practices across states.
However, there are numerous reasons why a quick determination of the winner is often unrealistic, particularly in a close race. According to The Associated Press there are number of elements that make rapid election results challenging, along with a closer examination of Trump’s call for a timely decision.
Realities of US Vote Counting
In the United States, the vote-counting process is decentralized, with nearly 10,000 local jurisdictions involved in tabulating results. This structure, which provides autonomy to state and local governments, also creates significant variability in vote counting practices across the country. Unlike nations such as France or Argentina, where a single national authority oversees elections and counts votes on a single ballot, U.S. ballots contain multiple races and propositions. Therefore, the process is more time-consuming and complex.
Furthermore, close races require a more meticulous tally to ensure accuracy, often delaying the announcement of the winner. When the gap between candidates is narrow, every vote—particularly absentee or provisional ballots—can make a difference. This caution helps maintain the accuracy and integrity of the final results, though it can take longer than expected.
Laws Impacting Ballot Counting in Swing States
State laws also play a key role in the speed of ballot counting. In Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, for instance, mail ballots cannot be processed until Election Day, creating a delay in reporting those results. This often leads to what is known as the “blue shift” or “red mirage,” where initial counts favor one party before shifting as more votes are counted.
Typically, Democrats tend to vote by mail more frequently, so early Election Day results often skew towards Republicans, with the balance shifting as mail-in ballots are tabulated later.
Some states have responded to these challenges by changing their laws. Michigan, for example, recently modified its laws to allow earlier processing of mail ballots, which is expected to speed up reporting there. However, other critical swing states, including Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, still operate under restrictive vote-counting laws, making it likely that complete results from these areas will be delayed.
Mail and Provisional Ballots Extend the Timeline
Mail-in and provisional ballots add additional layers of complexity to the counting process. For example, some states permit mail ballots that arrive after Election Day, as long as they are postmarked on or before Election Day. In Arizona, if a voter’s signature on a mail-in ballot does not match, they have up to five days to “cure” the discrepancy. These extended timelines are intended to ensure that every valid vote is counted, but they can also delay the final results, especially in states with large mail-in voting populations.
Moreover, military and overseas ballots, which can arrive later than domestic ones, also require processing. In close races, these additional ballots can affect outcomes, making it essential to wait until all valid votes are counted before declaring a winner.
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Trump’s Push for a Swift Declaration
Former President Trump has repeatedly expressed frustration with the prolonged vote-counting process and has called for a decision on Election Night. At a recent rally, he suggested that a winner should be declared by 10 or 11 p.m. on Election Night, adding that delays are the result of “crooked people.” His remarks echo sentiments from the 2020 election when he encouraged stopping the vote count early on Election Night, alleging that delays indicated fraud.
Despite these demands, election experts emphasize that counting all votes accurately is more important than finishing quickly. They note that rushing the process could undermine public confidence in the election’s legitimacy. David Becker, an elections expert, explained that it is unrealistic to expect an “instant count” given the large number of multi-page ballots across thousands of jurisdictions. Election experts, such as UCLA law professor Rick Hasen, also stress that the process’s integrity depends on a thorough count, not a rapid one.
Potential Influence of Early Voting Data
Trump and some allies have pointed to early voting numbers and favorable polling as signs that he could declare victory on Election Night. However, early voting data reflects only the number of ballots cast and not for whom they were cast, making it an unreliable measure for predicting outcomes. In swing states where Republicans have cast a significant portion of early votes, Trump supporters have projected confidence, though non-partisan and independent voters remain a significant factor that could shift results.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has targeted Republican and independent voters who may feel disillusioned by Trump. Early voting alone, therefore, does not offer an accurate projection of final results.
Ensuring Election Integrity and Patience in Close Races
The U.S. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency (CISA) has advised that voters rely on election officials’ statements rather than on candidates’ claims about election outcomes. According to CISA Director Jen Easterly, election officials are the most reliable source for confirming accurate results. Election integrity remains a priority, and the extended timeline in close races ensures a more trustworthy final outcome.
US election system’s complexity, coupled with varying state laws and the logistical challenges of counting millions of ballots, means that a conclusive result on Election Night is often impractical. Although Trump has advocated for a prompt declaration, electoral integrity and accuracy necessitate a careful, complete count, even if it takes additional time. The upcoming election will likely require voters, candidates, and the public alike to exercise patience as every valid vote is counted before a final decision is made.
