Key Points
· A positive sign as the country is battling with economic challenges, political polarisation, and complex security dynamics.
· PTI, which claims to be the largest political party, needs to consider that a depleted economy has serious implications for the general public.
· The evolving security situation warrants a unison response, which is only possible with the consensus of all stakeholders.
· Any engagement by the civilian government in dialogue with PTI leadership risks being perceived as circumventing the establishment, given its direct and intrinsic involvement in the matter.
· The people of Pakistan deserve a future free from political turmoil, economic hardship, and insecurity.
Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) and the federal government’s dialogue is a positive sign as the country is battling with economic challenges, political polarisation, and complex security dynamics. At a time when political commotion has deepened societal divides and inimical elements are exploiting it through unbridled social media campaigns to undermine trust in key institutions. These negotiations are a step toward fostering unity, addressing the pressing issues facing Pakistan by lowering political temperature. On December 23, 2024, PTI and the federal government initiated a long-awaited dialogue by forming high-profile committees comprising seasoned politicians from both sides. The government’s committee includes Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar, Rana Sanaullah, Raja Pervaiz Ashraf, Syed Naveed Qamar, Senator Irfan Siddiqui, and Dr Khalid Maqbool Siddiqui and Abdul Aleem Khan, while PTI’s side includes Asad Qaiser, Sunni Ittehad Council Chairman Sahibzada Hamid Raza, Senator Raja Nasir Abbas of the Majlis Wehdat-i-Muslimeen (MWM), Omar Ayub Khan, Ali Amin Gandapur, and Salman Akram Raja.
The country has grappled with a precarious economic situation, but with the concerted efforts of the government supported by military leadership, it did achieve substantial relief. The annual inflation rate eased to 4.9% in November 2024, down from 7.2% in October, marking the lowest reading since April 2018. Additionally, the State Bank of Pakistan reduced its key policy rate by 200 basis points to 13% on December 16, 2024, marking the fifth consecutive cut since June, aiming to stimulate economic growth amidst easing inflation. Foreign exchange reserves have surpassed $12 billion. There are positive economic indicators in other domains resonating a healthy fiscal state. However, these indicators can only be durable if the country attains political stability, an encouraging sign for domestic and foreign investors. PTI, which claims to be the largest political party, needs to consider that a depleted economy has serious implications for the general public, which PTI claims to be on its side. The unemployment rate is expected to reach 6.00% by the end of 2024, with projections indicating a rise to 6.50% in 2025.
The security situation is yet another factor that needs a whole-of-the-nation approach to eradicate pervasive terrorism from the country. Social and economic development projects have faced delays, and security threats persist both domestically and regionally. In the week ending 19 December 2024, the country experienced 13 major terrorist’ attacks with 12 fatalities and 18 injured in KP and Balochistan. Security Forces responded with seven operations, eliminating 29 terrorists. In another deadliest terrorist attack, 16 soldiers were martyred at the South Waziristan check post on 21 December 2024. The month of November was horrifying as 245 lost their lives while another 257 were injured in terrorists’ attacks. The evolving security situation warrants a unison response, which is only possible with the consensus of all stakeholders.
Pakistan also witnessed a souring of relations with Afghanistan, besides eyebrows raised by the West, including the US, over HR violations mainly fuelled by organised social media campaigns for vested political interests. The announcement of punishments by military courts fomented a serious backlash from the West, which was promptly termed an interference by Pakistan’s foreign Spox. These concerns or blatant interference in domestic affairs are, nonetheless, taken as a welcome sign by PTI, as it suits its demand of releasing incarcerated leaders, including its founder. It is imperative to note that PTI will raise the issue of the release of those involved in the 9th May vandalism, and it has also come up as a demand of the party in the first session of parleys conducted on 23 December 2024. It raises the question of whether the military establishment, which is the major stakeholder and victim of the 9th May vandalism, will be taken on board or whether the government has the authority to make a decision on PTI’s demand of releasing its leadership. The PTI’s actions on May 9 have positioned the establishment as a central stakeholder in this crisis. Any engagement by the civilian government in dialogue with PTI leadership risks being perceived as circumventing the establishment, given its direct and intrinsic involvement in the matter.
These negotiations are likely to be arduous and difficult as they attach too many critical implications, having a baggage of political animosity and PTI’s highhandedness, particularly with regards to events of 9th May. There is an explicit concern that whether the PTI team has the authority to reach a decision. As per political analysts, such authority rests with the founder PTI, who is dominated by hawks in the party. On the other hand, analysts also believe that the government has to take the establishment on board, especially for conceding to any demand regarding the release of PTI’s incarcerated leadership. Another view is regarding agreement on the political future of the country. Will PTI agree to let the current setup complete its tenure by resorting to opposition confined to parliamentary agitation, or will it continue street agitation as witnessed in the past?
Questions are also raised about PTI’s foreign-based supporters to refrain from perpetrating a malicious anti-state and anti-institutions social media campaign, as so far this segment has ignored all sane voices even within PTI. On the other hand, the government is also apprehensive of conceding to PTI’s demands as it may result in a possible regime change.
These challenges are, though enormous, by no means these can be termed nonstarter. Pakistan stands at a crossroads, and the decisions made today will shape the future for generations to come. The political polarization that has plagued the nation must give way to a collective, national approach. Negotiations are not just about resolving immediate disputes but about building a foundation for sustainable progress. For these negotiations to be successful, both parties must prioritize the nation over personal or party interests. Key measures include:
· Both committees must have the authority to make decisions without interference.
· Confidence-building measures, such as ceasing inflammatory rhetoric and addressing legitimate grievances, are essential.
· The judicial process, particularly in sensitive cases, must be transparent and fair to rebuild public trust.
· Both sides must work toward a shared vision for Pakistan’s future, setting aside personal rivalries.
The people of Pakistan deserve a future free from political turmoil, economic hardship, and insecurity. Through meaningful dialogue and collective action, this vision can become a reality.
