Hasty US withdrawal and swift takeover of the Taliban though marked the beginning of a new era in Kabul two years back, but much needed stability still seems a far cry in the peculiar dynamics of Afghanistan. The prolonged instability of Afghanistan has definite ill impacts on neighboring states. While struggling with multi-dimensional internal crises, the present ruling regime, commonly known as IEA, lacks international legitimacy. Neighboring states of Afghanistan share multiple security concerns amid prolonged instability revolving around terrorism, smuggling, illegal immigrants, and bi-lateral irritants. A stable and terrorism-free Afghanistan is an undeniable necessity for the whole region, but Pakistan’s stakes are comparatively higher than the rest of the players. While looking at the huge pack of crises, one should not lose sight of the multiple unexplored opportunities available to Afghanistan.
Stability Fissures: Terror, Polarization, Economic Fragility & Public Outrage
Tag of terrorism continues to dent the collective image of the Taliban, aka IEA. Despite inking the Doha deal with Afghan Taliban, the US has been persistently alleging them for having close ties with Al-Qaida and many splinter terrorist groups.
Undeniable concerns of Pakistan on Afghan based TTP have always put a major question mark on the intent of Afghan governments may it be Karzai , Ghani or Taliban regime in control of Kabul. China, Russia, CARs and Iran too carry varying degrees of concerns regarding the active presence of terrorist outfits in Afghanistan. A recent UNSC report has endorsed terror specific concerns by describing the linkages of IEA with TTP and Al-Qaida.
Despite uncontested takeover of Kabul amid swift meltdown of Afghan forces, IEA is still facing opposition from NRF and ISKP. Country is politically polarized without any credible institutional mechanism. Self-styled governance system of Taliban lacks inclusivity as well as acceptability outside the borders of Afghanistan.
Prolonged US led war and consequent instability is a main reason behind the infinite humanitarian crisis of Afghanistan. Food insecurity, unemployment, poor health facilities, lack of education infrastructure and economic turmoil have pushed Afghanis to seek refuge abroad in a state of incurable anguish.
Credibility Crisis: Recognition, Human Rights & Female Liberties
Taliban have so far failed in consolidating their swift takeover of Kabul. None of state has recognized IEA as a legitimate sovereign regime. Even well-wishers and immediate stake holders like Pakistan and China have linked the recognition issue with the collective response of international community. This legitimacy crisis is worsening with each passing day due to following factors:-
One; Large part of international community still views IEA regime as replay of past rule which remained objectionable to them on account of violence, human rights violations and lack of universally acknowledged democratic norms.
Two; non-flexible approach of IEA on matters of human rights is hindering the quest for international recognition.
Three; Enhanced female specific restrictions especially ban on girls education and employment are in radar of international forums and HR bodies. Despite the sincere suggestions from well-wisher countries; Taliban refused to reconcile from self-styled religious interpretations.
Four; Political opponents comprising NRF and supporters of past ruling regimes are repeatedly questioning the autocratic governance system of Taliban which lacks inclusivity, accountability, legality and respect for fundamental rights.
Intricate Opportunities: Hope and Alarm
Complex crisis may prove a turning point for Afghanistan if all stakeholders inclusive of non-Taliban quarters fairly comprehend the nature of opportunities existing very much in their reach.
One, Elimination of terrorist groups in collaboration with neighbors and international community is an unavoidable and equally beneficial duty.
Two; Pakistan’s strategic weight and stakes merit unbiased consideration on Afghan side. Despite serious security concerns, Islamabad is still offering diplomatic and humanitarian support on all international forums. Millions of Afghan refugees and unaccounted illegal immigrants are dependent on Pakistan. Kabul should grab the opportunity without taking this positivity for granted. Stability of Pakistan and Afghanistan is interlinked. TTP specific concerns of Pakistan are too genuine to brush off with arrogance wrapped in diplomatic diversions. Message from Islamabad is firm and straight that anti-Pakistan terrorist groups wouldn’t be tolerated any more.
Three, Inclusion of Afghanistan in BRI projects and recent Chinese investments may end the turmoil but much depends upon the Afghanis as how they opt to address the genuine security concerns of immediate stakeholders. Afghanistan based terrorist groups are involved in terrorist attacks directed to sabotage the CPEC. Afghanistan can no longer afford sheltering of terrorist outfits directly pitched against the neighbors like China and Pakistan.
Four, Intermittent killings of high value targets like recent episode of Sana Gahaffri are used by IEA to prove their commitment against terrorism as a routine. Such acts are appreciable but carry strong impression of selective approach of IEA amid turf war with rivals. TTP remains the biggest question mark on the future outlook and approach of IEA.
Five, Anti-Opium operations of IEA have received lot of appreciation at various international forums. BBC acknowledged its positive impact through an independent documentary. More positive efforts in right direction on account of human rights , women liberties and freedom of expression may help Afghanistan to repair the dented image
Six, Peaceful settlement of water dispute with Iran is a better act on part of IEA but it surfaced quite late after border skirmish. Recurrence of armed border clashes with Pakistan and Iran must be avoided to curtail the damaging influence of hawks detrimental to regional co-existence.
Seven; Inclusivity and democratic governance mechanism is a better substitute to existing self-styled non-elected exclusive Taliban regime. Sticking further to autocratic system will be detrimental to international recognition and formal global connectivity.
Eight, Engagement of regional and global players including international bodies like UNO with IEA in absence of formal recognition is all about the betterment of Afghani masses with no soft corner for Taliban regime. This reluctant support from international community can only be reinforced by swiftly mending the old flawed ways.