Climate Change a Growing Threat to Pakistan’s Agriculture Sector

Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change and faces growing risks from fluctuating monsoon rains, severe flooding and prolonged droughts.

Sun Jan 19 2025
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KEY POINTS

  • Rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and extreme weather are severely disrupting Pakistan’s agriculture.
  • Agriculture contributes 23% to Pakistan’s GDP and employs 37.4% of its workforce.
  • Heatwaves, early crop maturation, and declining groundwater levels have caused significant losses.
  • Scientists advocate for climate-resilient crops and modern farming techniques to counter the crisis.
  • By 2050, Pakistan fears a 47% increase in flood damages and a 32% rise in heatwave exposure.

 

ISLAMABAD: Climate change poses a serious and escalating threat to agriculture globally, with developing countries like Pakistan particularly vulnerable to its impacts.

Agricultural productivity is heavily impacted by climatic factors such as rising temperatures, erratic rainfall patterns, prolonged droughts, extreme weather events and inadequate irrigation.

Pakistan produces wheat, rice, cotton, sugarcane, maize, and fruits and these crops are affected by climate change.

Pakistan’s vulnerability to climate change

With an economy primarily dependent on agriculture, the country is highly sensitive to climate change and faces growing risks from fluctuating monsoon rains, severe flooding, and prolonged droughts.

According to a report published by the Ministry of Climate Change and Environmental Coordination, Pakistan’s per capita emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG) fall far below the global average; with 1.9 tons of per capita GHG emissions.

The report said Pakistan is ranked 135 among the countries of the world based on per capita GHG emissions (GOP 2010).

It said that Pakistan’s vulnerabilities stem from its warm climate, the dominance of arid and semi-arid regions, and its reliance on rivers fed by the Hindu Kush-Karakoram-Himalayan glaciers, which are reportedly retreating due to global warming.

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April 24 marked the wettest month in Pakistan in six decades, with the country experiencing significantly above-average rainfall and intense lightning, resulting in substantial loss of life and property.

According to the economic survey of Pakistan 2024-25 by 2050, the annual expected damage from riverine floods is projected to rise by approximately 47 percent. Similarly, the proportion of the population exposed to heatwaves each year is anticipated to increase by at least 32 percent.

A finance division report says agriculture is pivotal to Pakistan’s economy, contributing 23 per cent to the gross domestic product (GDP) and employing 37.4 per cent of the labour force.

Effects of climate change on crops

A senior scientist at the National Agricultural Research Centre (NARC) highlights the direct and indirect impacts of climate change on Pakistan’s agriculture.

Speaking to WE News English, on the condition not to be named, he explains that direct impacts occur when crops mature before their specified time, leading to reduced yields.

For instance, he says, last year’s rice crop suffered significant losses due to a heatwave that scorched much of the harvest. Similarly, the wheat crop matured early due to rising temperatures, resulting in lower-than-expected output.

Discussing the indirect effects, the NARC scientist pointed out that declining rainfall has led to the depletion of underground water reserves.

The federal government, in its review of the country’s economic performance for the first quarter (July–September) of the fiscal year 2024-25, reported that the agriculture sector showed a modest growth of 1.15 per cent, a sharp decline from the 8.09 per cent growth recorded during the same period last year.

Data from the Pakistan Cotton Ginners Association (PCGA) further highlighted a significant decrease in cotton arrivals, which fell by 33.27 per cent in 2024 compared to the previous year.

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As per IMF, Pakistan’s per capita annual water availability has reduced from 1500 cubic meters in 2009 to 1017 cubic meters in 2021.

The NARC scientist says this water scarcity has caused many tube-wells to cease functioning, severely affecting agricultural productivity. He emphasises the need to adopt modern agricultural techniques to address these challenges, stressing that the issue has serious implications for food security.

He recommends cultivating water-efficient, climate-resilient crops and constructing additional water reservoirs and small dams to combat water shortages and replenish underground water levels.

According to a report shared by Pakistan’s Ministry of National Food and Security on its website, agriculture is highly dependent on the country’s irrigation system, as the majority of the land is arid or semi-arid.

It says in recent years, the sector has faced numerous challenges, such as water scarcity, climate change, and low productivity, which have negatively impacted the country’s food security and economic growth.

The solar energy-run tube wells in the villages of Pakistan are also being used wastefully, affecting the underground water level.

According to a World Bank report such tube wells have over-extracted groundwater, with the level in some basins declining by more than 5 metres each year.

Germination of seeds

Dr. Ghulam Qadir, chairman of the Department of Agronomy at Pir Mehr Ali Shah Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi tells WE News English that climate change has a huge impact on the germination of seeds.

He observes that since last September, there has been no rainfall in agricultural regions, further exacerbating challenges for Pakistan’s farming sector. He highlights that irregular rainfall patterns pose a significant threat to agriculture. “At times, we experience prolonged rain spells that damage crops, while extended dry periods are equally detrimental to yields,” he explains.

The expert emphasises the importance of adopting new seed varieties tailored to current climatic conditions. “We can no longer rely on traditional farming methods,” he remarks, stressing that Pakistan must implement modern techniques and develop long-term strategies to ensure food security.

Climate Change on Germination of seeds

Dr. Qadir underscores the need for the government’s agricultural departments to collaborate with farmers, providing them with financial support to grow climate-resilient crops. He also urges the government to assist agricultural universities in developing new seed varieties suited to changing weather patterns.

Additionally, he recommends constructing water reservoirs and both large and small dams to store water for dry seasons. “We must shift toward precision agriculture,” he concludes.

New cropping patterns

Dr. Muhammad Zamin, an assistant professor at the University of Swabi in the northwestern province of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa of Pakistan is of the view that prolonged dry spells are severely impacting Pakistan’s agriculture. “We need to implement new cropping patterns that align with the changing climate,” he adds.

He highlights that temperature drops in some regions pose additional challenges for crop production, as certain seeds may struggle to withstand cold conditions. Wheat, rice, and maize, he maintains, are particularly vulnerable to extreme cold, potentially leading to lower-than-expected yields.

Climate Change on Germination of seeds 1
—Photo Collage by WE News

Dr. Zamin also points out that this season, Swat experienced no apple crop due to unusually high temperatures. He emphasised the importance of farmers adopting new seed varieties to improve production, warning that without such changes, crops will continue to fail as weather patterns shift.

He further explains that while each seed has its own resilience, traditional varieties must be replaced with newly developed, climate-adapted seeds.

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