ISLAMABAD: As the global community embraced the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas after 15 months of relentless Israeli bombardment campaign, international relations experts expressed cautious optimism.
Experts hope the deal will be honoured in both its letter and spirit, even as they acknowledge that certain terms remain contentious and hard to justify.
The deal, mediated by US, Qatari, and Egyptian officials, will take place over three phases, each slated to last six weeks. During the first phase, Hamas will release thirty-three hostages—women, children, and those over fifty years of age—and Israel will release hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, begin to withdraw from some areas, and facilitate a significant increase in humanitarian aid into Gaza.
In the second phase of the agreement, Hamas is expected to release the remaining male hostages while Israel pulls back from Gaza. The third phase will involve returning the bodies of deceased hostages and kickstarting the reconstruction efforts.
But does this deal, now awaiting approval from the Israeli cabinet, truly signal the end of the conflict? What lies ahead for Gaza’s rebuilding, Israel’s security, and broader regional initiatives?
Talking to WE News English, Dr. Munawar Hussain, a distinguished foreign affairs specialist and faculty member at American Study Centre, Quaid-i-Azam University, said that Israel unleashed its full arsenal and diplomatic might during the conflict in Gaza.
“Despite relentless bombardment, Hamas stood firm, and Israel is now acknowledging its inability to achieve its war objectives—a clear sign of defeat. However, discussions around a ceasefire indicate a positive shift, he said.
He added that President Trump made it clear to Prime Minister Netanyahu that the Gaza conflict needed to conclude before he took office.
Furthermore, the mounting pressure against Israel—emanating from the West, across the globe, and especially within the Middle East—has compelled Israel to consider a ceasefire.
With groups like the Yemenis refusing to back down, Hezbollah reorganising in response to Netanyahu’s accusations against Iran, and threats brewing in Syria and Iraq, the geopolitical landscape has shifted dramatically. Faced with these realities, Israel had little choice but to pursue a ceasefire.
Dr. Munawar emphasized that while Hamas has endured significant losses, Israel is also in a precarious position, heavily reliant on American aid, which allows it to sustain its military efforts. Recently, President Biden authorized an injection of eight billion dollars in military support for Israel.
Looking ahead, Dr. Munawar noted that the key challenge will be the implementation of the ceasefire terms. Nevertheless, one thing is clear: Hamas remains a resilient force.
Talking to WE News English, Prof. Dr. Tahir Jamil of Quaid-i-Azam University in Islamabad shared his insights. He believes the ceasefire between Israel and Hamas may finally close this long and tragic chapter for both sides. “Gaza lies in ruins, with countless innocent lives lost over the past fifteen months. Beyond the immediate devastation, this war has deepened the rift over a potential two-state solution,” he noted.
For many Arab nations and European countries, this conflict has become a pivotal moment to reaffirm or advocate for a sovereign and independent Palestine.
Dr. Jamil said, many in Israel fear that such a move could increase the likelihood of further attacks like those on October 7. Also, the war may be remembered for contributing to a rise in global anti-Semitism, with recent studies showing a notable increase in such sentiments, particularly among younger adults.
He noted that the future for Israel, Gaza, and the region remains uncertain. While the ceasefire has several stages that could reignite conflict if violated, Hamas is a bit weakened.
The Netanyahu government is also likely to honour the ceasefire, especially with President-elect Donald Trump aiming for a sustainable peace before taking office. Violating the deal could jeopardize Israel’s relationship with Trump and complicate its stance on Iran, a key concern for Netanyahu.
Meanwhile, the long-term challenges of Gaza’s reconstruction looms large. For now, however, many in Gaza are simply grateful for a reprieve from violence, while Israelis find solace in the anticipation of hostages returning home.
The ceasefire pact between Israel and Hamas is set to unfold in three stages beginning January 19, 2025.
After 15 harrowing months of relentless conflict that left thousands dead and reduced much of Gaza to rubble, a fragile peace and a plan for hostage release have finally emerged.
Qatar and the United States, alongside Egypt as key mediators, unveiled a vital ceasefire framework between Hamas and Israel, set to roll out in three phases.
However, shortly after this announcement, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remarked that the ceasefire deal is not yet finalized, and “final details” are still under negotiation.
Breaking down the three phases
Though specifics on the ceasefire and hostage release remain murky, Qatar’s Prime Minister, Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim al-Thani, revealed that the first phase will kick off on Sunday, January 19, 2025.
“We aspire for this to be the concluding chapter of the war, and we trust all parties will adhere to the terms of this agreement,” he stated.
This initial phase will last six weeks, establishing a total ceasefire in Gaza. It will entail the withdrawal of Israeli troops from densely populated areas and the release of certain Israeli hostages, including “women, the elderly, and the wounded,” as highlighted by President Biden. Sheikh Mohammed added that children will also be freed during this 42-day phase.
In return for these hostages, hundreds of Palestinian detainees will be released by Israel. Biden mentioned that throughout this phase, Palestinians will regain access to their neighborhoods, humanitarian aid will flow into Gaza, and civilians will receive crucial supplies.
During this initial period, Israel will also negotiate terms for the second phase. If discussions extend, the ceasefire will remain in effect as needed.
The second phase, once activated, will see the return of remaining Israeli hostages, including “male soldiers,” with an assurance that Israeli forces will be withdrawn from Gaza, transitioning the temporary ceasefire into a permanent one. However, full withdrawal will only occur once “all hostages are returned,” according to an unnamed Israeli official.
The final phase will focus on Gaza’s reconstruction, which currently lies in devastation with minimal infrastructure. “Ultimately, phase three will involve the return of any deceased hostages to their families and the commencement of a significant rebuilding initiative for Gaza,” Biden stated.
Negotiating phases two and three
Netanyahu expressed that the ceasefire agreement, as it stands, is incomplete and further negotiations are necessary to finalize the subsequent phases. He accused Hamas of deviating from earlier agreements regarding the hostage-prisoner exchange and claimed they are attempting to dictate the release of specific Palestinian prisoners. Hamas has not responded to these allegations.
Current situation in Gaza
Following the announcement of the peace initiative between Israel and Hamas on Wednesday night, Israel intensified its air strikes on Gaza, resulting in 81 deaths, according to medical sources in Gaza. Bombardments continued into Thursday morning, devastating numerous homes throughout Gaza City.
As the ceasefire approaches on January 19, Israel’s military actions leave a narrow window for further strikes on the already devastated region.
Despite the looming threat, there’s a palpable sense of relief among Gazans as they celebrate the ceasefire, hoping it marks an end to their prolonged suffering, though the journey to recovery is far from over.
The United Nations has committed to providing ample humanitarian aid to Gaza. World Food Programme Chief Cindy McCain reported that food supplies for approximately one million “acutely hungry” individuals are poised at the border, ready to assist the beleaguered population.
