MINGORA, Pakistan: Rising temperatures and drastic changes in rainfall patterns have significantly impacted fruit production in Swat valley of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, particularly the savoury and renowned apple.
The era of abundant apple yields has come to an end, with only a few orchards remaining for personal use, while most have been converted to cultivate peaches.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s Swat district has long been renowned for its tourism and diverse array of delectable fruits, including apples, plums, peaches, pears, persimmons, and citrus. However, over the past decade, farmers in the Swat valley have largely shifted from apple farming to peach cultivation due to significant losses and dwindling apple production.
The shift to peach cultivation
Fifty-two-year-old Abdul Hameed, who sports a grey beard, has been a farmer since 1992, working in Jalala Ashary, around 26 kilometres north of the district headquarters Saidu Sharif. Currently, he grows peach trees on his 11-acre land.
Pointing towards his orchard, he recalls, “This entire orchard was once blooming with apple trees, but unfortunately, dwindling production and quality issues led to their decline.”
The seasoned farmer and merchant led the shift from apple to peach cultivation in his orchard, starting in 2003. Following 2007, he fully transitioned to growing peaches and persimmons.
“Apple cultivation requires a consistent cold chain, but unfortunately, since 2007, we witnessed drastic changes in rainfall patterns and cold stress phenomena, leading to significant losses in apple and plum yields.”
His annual income quadrupled after adopting peach cultivation.
Apple cultivation requires a consistent cold chain, but unfortunately, since 2007, we witnessed drastic changes in rainfall patterns and cold stress phenomena, leading to significant losses in apple and plum yields.” – Fifty-two-year-old farmer Abdul Hameed
Apple trees, he says, have begun to succumb to various unknown diseases, resulting in damaged fruit and decreased yield. Between 2007 and 2010, militancy in the region severely impacted farmers, who were unable to approach their orchards, resulting in significant damage to their businesses.
In the aftermath, the influx of non-custom paid vehicles and rampant cement constructions contributed to a rise in area temperatures, further exacerbating the challenges faced by the agriculture sector.
Decline in apple production
According to the Fruit, Vegetables and Condiments Statistics of Pakistan (2021-22)—a datasheet compiled by Ministry of National Food Security and Research—apples were grown on 7,540 hectares in 2017-18 in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, followed by 5,976 hectares in 2018-19, 3,027 hectares in 2019-20, 5,512 hectares in 2020-21; and 1,556 hectares in 2021-22. This indicates a staggering 79.36 per cent decline in apple cultivation over a five-year period, from 2017 to 2022.
So far as the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s annual yield of apple is concerned, in 2017-18 it produced 69,287 metric tonnes, in 2018-19, 57,236 metric tonnes, 2019-20, 22,488 metric tonnes, 2020-21, 52,264 metric tonnes and in 2021-22 46,011 metric tonnes.
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data reveals that apple production in 1993-1994 was 8,000 hectares in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 31,200 hectares in Balochistan, and 39,500 hectares in Pakistan. By 2009, these numbers changed to 94,000 hectares in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 102,100 hectares in Balochistan. However, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s apple area dropped to 8,000 hectares in 2011.
In 1993, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa produced 84 metric tonnes of apples, while Pakistan produced 442 metric tonnes: 19 per cent of the total production.
By 2010-11, these numbers increased to 95.6 metric tonnes in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 525 metric tonnes in Pakistan: making 18 per cent of the total yield.
Peach takes over
Pakistan Bureau of Statistics data regarding peach production shows that in 2010-11, peach cultivation spanned 900 hectares in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and 3,600 hectares in Pakistan. By 2010-11, these numbers increased to 5,600 hectares in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (over nine times increase) and 15,200 hectares in Pakistan.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa produced 10.1 metric tonnes of peaches in 1993-94, which increased significantly to 30.8 metric tonnes in 2010-11. Pakistan’s overall peach production was 52.6 metric tonnes in 2010-11.
Farmers in the valley attribute the shift from apple to peach farming to the significant production and handsome prices of peaches, which have become the dominant fruit.
Sharifullah Khan, a farmer from Chupryal in Swat, recalls that the 1990s were heydays of apple farming, saying that In 1993, a 3-4-kilogram carton of apples was selling for Rs70 in Swat. “I used to buy apple cartons and sold them in Lahore for Rs 300 each.”
However, after 2005, peach farming became more profitable. Khan explains that a single peach tree produces 20-25 cartons of peaches, with prices ranging from Rs1,000 to Rs1,500 per carton. As a result, a single peach tree can earn its owner a minimum of Rs. 25,000.
It merits a mention here that apples have a competitive market as it is also produced in Pashtun belt of Balochistan, tribal districts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa especially in South Waziristan and also imported from Afghanistan. While, Swat farmers have a monopoly in peach business as major chunk of the peach, produced in the country, comes from Swat with no consignments coming from any neighbouring country.
Climate change and its impact
Sharifullah Khan attributes the decline in apple production to two factors: the rise of peach production and the impact of climate change. He says that apple production requires 90 days of chilling weather, which is no longer consistent due to changing weather patterns.
According to the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Change Action Plan 2022, Pakistan’s annual temperature has increased by around 0.5 °C over the last few decades, resulting in regular heatwaves. Climate change has also led to an increase in demand for irrigation water and domestic energy.
Pakistan has severely impacted by climate change, with 174,000 deaths attributed to extreme climatic events between 1995 and 2014, according to the 2023-24 annual report of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Climate Change and Forestry Department.
During the same period, the country also incurred a monetary loss of $26 billion. Besides, it has caused changes in weather and food production patterns, as well as abrupt and disastrous weather events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves.
Snowfalls and Temperatures
Shafiullah Khan, 46, has been in the agriculture seeds business in Upper Swat for the last 14 years. He observes that, “Snowfall on apple trees serves as a natural protector, safeguarding the fruit from disease and resulting in organic and safe produce for human consumption. However, our farmers often lack necessary skills to protect their fruit orchards from disease. Typically, they only seek our assistance when their farms have already hit a wall, rather than taking preventative measures.”.
According to Asian Development Bank report titled ‘Climate Risk Country Profile—Pakistan’ published in 2021, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa saw a temperature increase of 0.52°C between 1961 and 2007, which is lower than other regions. Overall, Pakistan’s temperature rose by 0.57°C in the 20th century.
Data from the Swat Agriculture Department for the 2022-2023 season reveals that apples were cultivated on 3,580 hectares, yielding 34,100 metric tons in the district. In contrast, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s total apple production was 124,467 metric tons during the same period.
According to the Ministry of National Food Security and Research’s report—Crops Area & Production 2022-23—the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa apple production in 2021-22 was 46,011 tonnes while in 2022-23 it was 46,407 tonnes.
South Waziristan is the largest producer of apple in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, with 29,180 tonnes production in 2021-22, and 29,154 tonnes in 2022-23. In Swat, apples were cultivated on 1,100 hectares in 2021-2022, yielding 5,962 tonnes.
In comparison, Swat grew peaches on 7,643 hectares in 2021-22, producing 50,290 tonnes, while total peach production of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa was 72,422 tonnes. The following year, the area dedicated to peach cultivation decreased to 6,915 hectares, yielding 45,533 tonnes.
Shah Alam Khan, Director of Agriculture Extension in Upper Swat, disputes these figures.
As a local farmer and department officer, he challenges anyone to show him even 300 hectares of apple farms in Swat
“This data is based on old information from revenue officials, who used outdated techniques,” Alam says and hastens to add that, “I consider it inaccurate. There are only a few orchards left, mostly owned by local influential people who don’t sell their produce but use it for personal consumption and gift-giving.”
Apple trees, he says, require a consistent temperature of 3-4°C or below for at least three months, which is now a distant dream.
“Currently, it is the snowfall season, and typically, there should be up to two to three feet of snow here in Mor Bandai area of Matta tehsil in Swat. But so far, there has not been any significant snowfall, even with February started.”
