By Naveed Khan
ISLAMABAD: To argue against the reality of climate change is like boxing with a glacier—a phrase the coming generations might not even understand if we do not act decisively today. Extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, rising sea levels, food and water insecurity, and health risks demand nations and individuals to step up to the challenge of climate change. Are we going to perish because of the ever-increasing climate events, predominantly induced by human activities and the insatiable drive for material gains at the expense of future generations? The answer, based on scientific evidence, is yes—but not immediately if we accelerate the progress made at platforms like the COP29 summit in Baku.
COP29, which was hosted in Baku, offered some rays of hope amidst the climate crisis. In this regard, one promising agreement was a commitment by wealthy nations to provide $300 billion annually by 2035. It will be aimed at supporting developing countries in their transition to renewable energy and climate adaptation. Still, the figure falls short of the trillions needed: although it is a step forward in acknowledging the unfair burden developing nations face.
In American novelist Kim Stanley Robinson’s “The Ministry for the Future,” a heat wave causes 20 million people to perish in a small town in a week in the Indo-Gangetic plain, which stretches from Pakistan through India and covers much of Bangladesh. The fictional novel’s scenes seem terrifying at the moment, but they could soon become a reality.
The nightmare spectacle is made worse with the return of US president-elect Donald J Trump, who favours economic growth, is a climate change skeptic, and overlooks the data, facts, and figures that point to the reality of changes in climate ever since the Industrial Revolution. Adding facts and figures to the above terrifying scenario, a study published in the pre-eminent journal, “Lancet Planetary Health,” found that between 2000 and 2019, 110,000 more people died yearly from heat-related causes in South Asia. It recalls 1,300 deaths in Karachi in 2015 due to heat stress. In addition to that, according to World Weather Attribution, heat waves in 2023 were 30 times more likely owing to climate change.
Extreme weather events, loss of biodiversity, rising sea levels, food and water insecurity, and health risks demand nations and individuals to step up to the challenge of climate change.
In the landmark Paris Agreement adopted in 2015, it was decided to limit the rise in temperature to below 1.5°C, but that dream has already dissipated, as, at present, according to research conducted by The Economist, the world is already about 1.2°C hotter than pre-industrial times.
To meet the target of 1.5°C, emissions needed to be zeroed out in the middle of the century in light of the report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate 2018. But this does not mean that everything is doomed and there is no hope.
READ ALSO: World Agrees $300B Climate Finance Deal at COP29
Climate 2018. But this does not mean that everything is doomed and there is no hope.
The declining costs of renewables can be the biggest hope against the impending doom of climate-related disasters. Solar panels are leading the cause with their ever-increasing installed capacity. In this regard, China alone has installed more solar panels than the entire world could claim in 2015 when the Paris Agreement was struck.
Now, this is a glimmer of hope in the backdrop of climate-related disappointments; it means emissions are falling, and they will continue to do so. Notably, COP29 finalized the rules for a global carbon credit market under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement. This market is expected to channel significant funds into emission-reducing projects like reforestation and renewable energy initiatives.
Technological advancements have always been at the forefront of saving humanity. In the case of climate change, we are witnessing a repeat of history, where technology, in the past, played a key role in addressing famines and widespread starvation caused by food shortages. Around four million people died in the famine of 1945 in India, and millions perished in China in the 1960s. Today, thanks to technology, many fewer people die from issues like famine or food shortages.
The recent advancements and surges in climate-related technology have proved economic models wrong, which estimated that their costs would remain high; on the contrary, prices have fallen surprisingly. But it does not mean that technology itself will fix every wrong; the history of energy shows that new technologies take time to become part of the existing ones. It needs the overhaul of the decades-old system of power generation. A few years ago, solar panels were a luxury in rural areas of Pakistan; today, one can see them installed in most houses, whether belonging to the poor or the rich. This is the transition we are optimistic about.
Countries dependent on fossil fuels are lagging in this new revolution, for most of these technologies come from countries which lack domestic oil and gas resources and that spend billions on importing these commodities. That country is China. By investing in such technologies, China is not only saving its economic resources but is also proving to be a harbinger of hope for the downtrodden countries.
These countries, owing to the cheap prices, can shift towards renewables. But they need financial assistance from the developing nations, which is also their moral duty. Loans can be given to poor countries, and programmes can be developed to help such nations get rid of the dirtiest fossil fuel i.e. coal. It is very unfortunate that “Just Energy Transition Partnerships”, designed for this purpose, failed to do so.
Coal was favoured by local populations and small-scale businesses, but the day has arrived when it has its replacements available. If the right measures are taken at an appropriate time, then emissions will not only fall but they will do so at a much faster rate than experienced before. It is perhaps our last chance to keep the temperature below 2°C before pre-industrial levels: 1.5°C has already become an illusion.
It does not mean that climate-related disasters will not occur; a 2°C rise in temperature will still wreak havoc across the world, but it is a much safer and more pragmatic option, given the current circumstances. Adaptive measures can always help do wonders.
COP29’s emphasis on adaptation and the operationalization of the Loss and Damage Fund are steps in the right direction. Even without the US under President Trump playing its due role, the rest of the world is still quite capable of dealing with climate change.
