India: State Elections a Litmus Test for Modi’s Third Term Hopes

Tue Nov 07 2023
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NEW DELHI: Elections in the Indian States of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram this month posing a significant test for the BJP and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s bid for a third term in the upcoming national election next year. 

Voting has commenced in Mizoram and Chhattisgarh states on Tuesday to elect new legislatures, while Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Telangana states will elect legislatures on November 17, November 23, and November 30 elections, respectively. 

Both Modi and the leaders of the main opposition Congress party, led by Rahul Gandhi, have extensively campaigned in these five states, making promises of financial assistance, farm loan waivers, subsidies, and insurance coverage, among other incentives, in a bid to attract voters.

Rahul Gandhi has made considerable efforts to bounce back the party following the Congress’s worst defeat in the 2019 general elections. He has also played a key role in forming an alliance of 28 regional parties to provide a stronger challenge to Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2024 national elections.

The newly formed opposition alliance, known as the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (India), had performed well in last year’s state elections. However, the alliance is unable to extend its cooperation to the state elections this month due to local rivalries, giving the BJP an advantage.

State Elections a Test Modi

Over 160 million people, approximately one-sixth of India’s total electorate, are eligible to vote in these regional elections conducted in four phases until November 30. Votes in all five states will be counted on December 3, with results expected the same day.

The elections in the states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Mizoram mainly revolve around a contest between the BJP and Congress.

“We are confident of securing a majority in all states,” stated Raman Singh, a senior BJP leader and former chief minister of Chhattisgarh. He also mentioned that Modi’s recent decision to extend a free food grain program for five more years is expected to garner more votes.

While the BJP faces challenges, Singh expressed the belief that the results will demonstrate that the people are not inclined to experiment and trust Modi’s stable governance, as per Reuters.

Opinion polls indicate closely contested races, particularly in the central heartland states of Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Chhattisgarh, with Congress governing two of them and the BJP in one.

“Results from state elections ahead of the 2024 polls will reflect the overall public sentiment and significantly aid our opposition coalition in refining its messaging, coordination, and leadership,” commented Sachin Pilot, a senior Congress leader. He added that their goal is to secure victories in all five states, attributing this to what he sees as Modi’s failure to generate new jobs, address rural distress, and exacerbate communal tensions, which he believes will lead to the BJP’s defeat.

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