By Qamar Bashir
The nation was on tenterhooks over a tense standoff between the Supreme Court and the Constitution on one side and the government and legislature on the other. Though the judiciary had all the power pieces on its side of the chessboard, its opponent had none, and its king was fully exposed, the judiciary showed great restraint and grace by delaying the execution of the king, giving its detractor a second chance to rearrange its pieces and, creating a win-win situation for both sides instead of full-blown wrangling.
While the Supreme Court’s order to hold elections in Punjab on May 14 is still in place, requiring the government to implement its order by providing Rs20 billion to the Election Commission of Pakistan, which it failed to do, and the entire nation was expecting Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif’s sacrifice. However, the court showed grace to the prime minister and its coterie for now. It gave them another chance to commit to the agreed-upon election date, either for the Punjab assembly or the assemblies, including the National Assembly.
Both parties, albeit reluctantly, held negotiations upon election dates in a tense atmosphere, which was a welcome development that helped calm the nation’s frayed nerves. Both parties carefully stacked their cards, revealing some while concealing others, and reaffirmed their stated positions at the outset before returning to confer with their respective leadership and agreeing to reconvene on April 28, 2023.
All stakeholders are putting as much pressure on its opponent as possible to gain an advantage and edge. The Supreme Court stated that after hearing the parties’ concerns, it had reserved the order and will announce it when deemed appropriate. By doing so, the sharp and lethal sword of contempt of court hung directly over the heads of those in the chain of command who refused to allocate Rs. 20 billion to the election commission.
Before entering into negotiations, the PML(N) threw numerous spoilers. First, it threatened that elections would not be held unless a level playing field was created, implying an honourable and fully exonerated return of Nawaz Sharif to lead the PML-N during the elections.
The second spoiler demanded an investigation into the 2018 election and to hold accountable all those responsible for rigging and engineering, including Gen (retd) Qamar Javaid Bajwa and Lt-Gen (retd) Faiz and their associates, including retired Justice Khosa and Imran Khan himself.
Its third spoiler was the demand that elections for all assemblies should be held on the same date i.e, 8th October, including the Punjab assembly elections out of fear that the PTI is likely to win the Punjab assembly elections with a huge margin which will guarantee their victory in the general elections, which would annihilate the PML-N from the entire country as the PPP will remain firmly installed in Sindh and enjoy the power of the second largest province.
Due to its naivety, compulsion, or being forced by vested interests, the PML(N) became the most vulnerable victim of regime change, being blamed for the deteriorating state of the economy, and hyperinflation, which has pushed 18 million more people below the poverty line and caused two million more people to lose their jobs. PML-N is also blamed for dismal and pitiful projected GDP growth of 0.5% compared to last year’s unprecedented and unexpected growth of 6%.
This forecast is the lowest in the region, even lower than Afghanistan, which is projected to grow by 1.5% in 2022-23; all the more reason for PML-N to buy more time to stabilize the economy, improve reserves, stimulate the economy, and reduce inflation before committing to elections.
Moulana Fazal Rahman will be the biggest loser if early elections are held.
Now that he is the leader of the PDM, he will only be relevant until elections are held, and it is written on the wall that he will lose. His heir is being trained as a minister in the Federal Cabinet and is relishing the first ever taste of protocol, the luxury of being a minister, and devouring the perks and perquisites attached to it, which they fear will be lost once the elections are held, so they are pushing the government and the parliament toward a collision course to give them a few more months of luxury and comfort.
However, realizing the wind’s direction, his outright rejection of any negotiation appeared to soften when PDM-minus him entered into negotiation with PTI in their attempt to avert impending disaster. To remain relevant, he was forced to say that the PDM can enter into negotiations if they are brokered by the election commission. His softening of stance demonstrates unequivocally that the Supreme Court’s strategy is working.
The PPP appears to have only one agenda: to maintain their power base in Sindh and to oppose any move that could lead to the imposition of a one unit in Pakistan. Mr. Bilawal, who had a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to be trained in statehood under the capable and experienced guidance of Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Hina Rabbani Khar, was the only one who seemed concerned about the imposition of one unit, which he fears will deprive them of Sindh, which they inherited from Late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto and Benazir Bhutto Shaheed as their fiefdom. It seems they have already conceded defeat in Punjab and KP, so postponing the elections as long as possible is in their best interests to allow them to enjoy power in the federal government as much as possible.
The phony opposition led by Raja Riaz has its own vendetta. He and his associates would fight tooth and nail to postpone elections as long as possible so that they could continue to enjoy the luxury of being a member of parliament, which they fear and rightly so will lose because they are well aware of the general public’s hatred for them as being turncoats and lotas.
If the election date is announced, PDM will suffer significant losses on a number of fronts. To begin, it will prohibit the government from making major policy decisions or announcements during the run-up to elections to ensure that the elections are fair and that the government does not use its power to influence the election’s outcome.
Second, in order to maintain neutrality in the run-up to the elections, the government will be restricted from using public resources such as media channels or public spaces for campaign activities.
Third, the government will be subjected to increased scrutiny by the media, opposition parties, and the general public. Any blunders or scandals could wreak havoc on the government’s reputation and electoral prospects. Fourth, the government’s long-term planning will be disrupted by a shift in focus to the election campaign, and finally, if the government is defeated in the election, they will vacate their positions and make way for a new government.
The PTI has the most at stake and will be the ultimate and biggest winner if early elections for the Punjab assembly or all the assemblies are held on the same day. Every day is significant for PTI. For them, the current state of the economy, the threat of terrorism, and the government’s failure to control inflation are all gold and receipts to win elections.
They have their own pressure cards, which they keep close to their hearts and only show when necessary. The first card was agreeing on a date for the election, whether on May 14th or in July, but guaranteed by the Supreme Court and the establishment. Second, all assemblies are disbanded, and neutral caretaker governments are established.
Third, dissolve the current caretaker setups in Punjab and KP, as they have completed their mandated 90-day period and their continuation will be illegal and unconstitutional. If the election date is set and neutral governments are formed, the PTI will be free to launch an election campaign with full force, without fear of intimidation or harassment. They will benefit from increased media and public attention on political issues to promote their platforms and policies.
During the run-up to the elections, they will have an equal opportunity to campaign and access public resources such as media coverage and public campaign spaces.
They will be free to issue a rallying cry to opposition supporters, encouraging them to become more engaged and mobilized and to increase turnout at rallies and other campaign events. Because the current government is unpopular or ineffective, the announcement of an election date will boost the PTI as disillusioned voters seek an alternative to help the PTI gain momentum and instil confidence in their victory.
Lastly, the establishment, the elephant in the room, and once the election date is announced, will be in a difficult position, as the entire regime change, the launch of the PDM, and the ousting of Imran Khan were their idea. Keeping in mind their hostile and tense relationships with Imran Khan, the establishment would like to delay the elections as much as possible to help the PDM improve the economy, bring inflation down, and roll out some public oriented high value projects in an attempt to win them some political capital, while simultaneously attempting to weaken the PTI by fomenting internal strife, as they did when they split the PTI into the Jehangir, Aleem Khan and Raja Riaz factions and discredit Imran Khan to erode his political capital as much they can.
But, unlike in the past, they will not have a free ride as all their previous weapons of discredit have been blunted by Imran Khan and rejected by the public in general. This time, they must devise more inventive or lethal means to prevent Imran Khan’s rise to power.
The supreme court’s strategy to compel the PDM and PTI to soften their adamant positions and belligerent behaviour has finally succeeded.
They have agreed to meet tomorrow at 3 p.m. (28th April 2023) with the understanding that they will continue to discuss election dates within the confines of the Constitution, as mandated by the Supreme Court.
It is time for them to set aside their personal egos, have compassion for the nation and its unfortunate citizens, and demonstrate the best behaviour possible, which includes maintaining a high level of civility and respect for each other, approaching the process with a spirit of cooperation and compromise, avoiding demands and ultimatums, and focusing on finding common ground. To reach an agreement on the election date, both parties should be willing to make concessions and compromises, which may include adjusting the timing or duration of the election period to meet the needs of both parties.
During the negotiation process, both parties should be transparent about their intentions and motivations to build trust and ensure that negotiations are conducted in good faith. They should agree on rules and regulations governing the conduct of the election and ensure that all parties have equal access to resources such as media channels and public spaces.
They should commit to upholding the law and ensuring that all election-related activities are conducted in accordance with applicable legislation and regulations, including rules regarding campaign finance, use of public resources, and conduct during the election period, in order to ensure a free and fair electoral process that all parties accept.
