NEW DELHI: India’s Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his allied political parties were heading for victory in the country’s general election count on Tuesday, but with a small parliamentary majority as the opposition surpassed expectations.
While Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies maintain a lead in the vote count, the opposition has made significant gains, surpassing expectations and signaling a shift in the country’s political landscape.
Commentators and exit polls had projected an overwhelming victory for Modi, whose campaign wooed the Hindu majority to the worry of the country’s 200-million-plus Muslim community, deepening concerns over minority rights.
However, the BJP appears to have fallen short of securing an overall majority on its own, marking the first time in a decade.
With nearly 90 percent of the votes tallied, the BJP and its allies are leading in around 288 seats out of 543, according to figures from the election commission. While this is sufficient for a parliamentary majority, the BJP alone is projected to secure only 244 seats, down from its previous tally of 303.
Meanwhile, the main opposition Congress party is poised to nearly double its parliamentary seats, benefitting from strategic alliances and consolidation of anti-BJP votes in key constituencies. Congress is leading in 99 seats, a significant increase from its previous count of 52.
With just under 90 percent of the votes counted, the BJP’s vote share at 37.3 percent was marginally lower than it was in the last polls in 2019.
The mixed results have sparked celebrations at both BJP and Congress headquarters. While BJP supporters herald Modi’s continued leadership, Congress sees the outcome as a moral victory, highlighting the BJP’s failure to secure a mandate. “BJP has failed to win a big majority on its own,” Congress lawmaker Rajeev Shukla told reporters. “It’s a moral defeat for them.”
The prospect of a reduced majority has rattled markets, with stocks plunging amid speculation of potential obstacles to the BJP’s reform agenda. The BJP’s opponents, however, have faced challenges in countering the party’s formidable campaign machinery and have raised concerns over alleged political targeting and intimidation.
Stocks slumped on speculation the reduced majority would hamper the BJP’s ability to push through reforms.
Shares in the main listed unit of Adani Enterprises — owned by key Modi ally Gautam Adani — dropped 25 percent, before recovering.
Modi’s opponents have struggled to counter the BJP’s well-oiled and well-funded campaign machine, and have been hamstrung by what they say are politically motivated criminal cases aimed at hobbling challengers.
US think tank Freedom House said this year that the BJP had “increasingly used government institutions to target political opponents”.
Arvind Kejriwal, chief minister of the capital Delhi and a key leader in an alliance formed to compete against Modi, returned to jail on Sunday.
Kejriwal, 55, was detained in March over a long-running corruption probe, but was later released and allowed to campaign as long as he returned to custody once voting ended.
“When power becomes a dictatorship, then jail becomes a responsibility,” Kejriwal said before surrendering himself, vowing to continue “fighting” from behind bars.
Many of India’s Muslim minority are increasingly uneasy about their futures and their community’s place in the constitutionally secular country.
Modi himself made several strident comments about Muslims on the campaign trail, referring to them as “infiltrators”.
