NEW DELHI, India: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to Moscow holds profound implications against the backdrop of evolving global dynamics, particularly the deepening ties between China and Russia.
Scheduled for July 8-9, this diplomatic mission is Modi’s first bilateral trip to Russia since the Kremlin’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, underscoring the nuanced challenges and strategic imperatives India faces in its external engagements.
Strengthening Longstanding Ties
India and Russia share a historical relationship rooted in defence cooperation and energy trade. Despite global sanctions on Russia, India has maintained robust economic interactions, particularly in the energy sector where it benefits from discounted Russian oil. This economic dimension not only underscores mutual interdependence but also highlights India’s pragmatic approach to maintaining essential energy supplies amidst global uncertainties.
Strategic Defence Discussions
During the upcoming talks with President Vladimir Putin, Modi is expected to focus on enhancing military cooperation. Discussions may include logistics agreements to streamline defence collaboration and potentially reviving talks on jointly developing advanced military technologies such as fifth-generation fighter aircraft. These initiatives are pivotal for India as it seeks to modernize its defence capabilities and counter emerging security challenges, particularly along its disputed border with China.
Navigating Regional Dynamics
Modi’s visit to Moscow also serves as a diplomatic maneuver amidst shifting regional alignments. The deepening strategic partnership between Moscow and Beijing has raised concerns in New Delhi, prompting India to recalibrate its foreign policy to safeguard its national interests. India’s engagement with Russia, therefore, serves as a balancing act, ensuring it maintains strategic autonomy while leveraging key partnerships to address regional security dynamics effectively.
Economic and Defence Diversification
While India’s defence ties with Russia remain significant, there has been a noticeable shift towards diversifying defence procurement sources, including increased engagements with Western suppliers like France and the United States. This diversification strategy aims to modernize India’s defence forces and reduce dependency on any single supplier, thereby enhancing operational capabilities and strategic flexibility.
Implications for Global Diplomacy
These developments are being watched with concern by the US, but India appears resolute in advancing its connectivity projects despite Western apprehensions.
India’s deepening ties with Russia come at a time when China has also increased its imports of Russian energy, further strengthening the economic lifeline for Moscow amidst Western sanctions. Together, China and India have become the largest consumers of Russian crude oil, with significant increases in their imports over the past year. This trend highlights a potential realignment in global energy markets and geopolitical alliances, as Asian powers assert their strategic autonomy.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s forthcoming visit to Russia underscores the complex interplay of economic interests and geopolitical strategy. However, the BJP’s ambiguous policy of benefiting from both the US and Russia may not be sustainable in the long run. India faces the challenge of choosing sides and standing for moral values rather than prioritizing transactional and economic benefits.
Continuing to buy record amounts of Russian oil while being part of alliances like the QUAD could damage India’s reputation, credibility, and moral standing on the global stage. India, claiming to be a strategic partner of the US and a friend to Russia, would in fact, under BJP leadership, be a friend to no one.
