Key points
- In the past year, Russian nuclear submarines have practiced firing cruise missiles near Norway
- That drill followed Arctic wargames by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization
- US and Russia are only 53 miles apart near the Arctic Circle
- Sea-ice cover in Arctic has shrunk from 2.7m sq miles in 1979 to 1.7m sq miles in 2024
ISLAMABAD: Following Donald Trump’s remarks about a possible US annexation of Greenland, the High North has come under renewed international focus.
Climate change and geopolitical tensions are driving a new race for the region, according to the Green European Journal.
According to an article carried by MSN originally published in WSJ, tensions are high and things in the Arctic have never been hotter. In the past year, Russian nuclear submarines have practiced firing cruise missiles near NATO members Norway, Finland and Sweden. That drill followed Arctic wargames by the North Atlantic Treaty Organization that included amphibious assaults in the frigid seas.
When Russian and Chinese bombers flew together north of Alaska in August, Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski described the move as an “unprecedented provocation by our adversaries.” The following month, Russia and China sent patrol boats through icy waters of the high north.
Who owns the north pole?
According to NZZ, In 2007, Russia asserted its claims over the North Pole by planting a flag on the seabed. Other Arctic states like Canada and Denmark have also lodged claims, which are yet to be decided upon. Unlike the Antarctic, the region surrounding the North Pole is not regulated by a multilateral agreement.
Icy neighbours
According to the article carried by MSN originally published in WSJ, the US and Russia are only 53 miles apart across the Bering Strait, near the Arctic Circle. Geopolitically, they are more distant than in decades.
The Arctic has warmed nearly four times as fast as the rest of the planet in recent decades, according to researchers, who call the phenomenon Arctic amplification.
Sea-ice cover in the Arctic has shrunk from an annual minimum of 2.7 million square miles in 1979 to 1.7 million square miles in 2024, according to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. That represents the loss of an area the size of Argentina in less than 50 years.
As the sea-ice has retreated, the number of high-latitude voyages taken by ships through the region has advanced.
During the Cold War, both sides deployed some of their most powerful weapons and surveillance systems in the region.
After the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991, the U.S. shrank its bases in Alaska, and Russia’s Arctic forces decayed. The two countries cooperated on issues including the environment, fisheries and maritime safety.
Now, rising animosity is prompting Russia and NATO to renew military deployments in the region because it offers each side prime territory from which to strike, said Rob Huebert, the interim director of the University of Calgary’s Center for Military, Security and Strategic Studies.
Moscow’s strong presence
The US Department of Homeland Security in 2023 said Moscow’s ability to maintain a strong presence in the Arctic Ocean outstrips Washington’s capacity—weakening American security.
North America lacks military infrastructure in its far North.
Norad, the joint US-Canadian command created in 1958 to defend the continent against Soviet attack, aims to detect any impending assault from over the North Pole.
Out of date Norad
But its surveillance network of satellites, ground-based radar and air force bases has fallen out of date. Russia and China are deploying new missiles that can fly much farther than their predecessors, reaching five times the speed of sound, which would overwhelm America’s existing sensors.
The US and Canada are working to modernize Norad by replacing radar systems and upgrading defense capabilities. Canada, which lags behind most NATO members in defense spending, recently bought 88 F-35 jet fighters from the U.S., which it will deploy in northern bases.
Commercial competition
The region is already a zone of intense commercial competition.
The US has no Arctic deepwater ports to host heavy containerships. Most of Alaska has no roads or rail lines, complicating access to the Far North.
Canada, with Arctic territory second only to Russia, has just one deepwater port offering access to the Arctic Ocean, and it lies 500 miles south of the Arctic Circle. Airports in remote spots have runways of packed earth or gravel, making them unsuitable for commercial cargo planes or jet aircraft.
Closer Sino-Russian ties
Russia’s growing international isolation following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 helped cement closer ties with China. Russia has increasingly opened its Arctic territory up to Beijing as Beijing has propped up the Russian economy and provided dual-use equipment to buttress its military.
That support has been prominent in the Arctic, where Chinese companies are significant investors and equipment suppliers in Russian energy projects including the Yamal LNG and Arctic 2 LNG projects.
Russia, in return, has been shipping fuel to China using its so-called shadow fleet, by which sanctioned vessels make illicit deliveries of Russian oil to markets in Asia. Last year saw a record volume for transit cargo through the Northern Sea Route from northwestern Russia to the Bering Strait, according to Rosatom, the Russian agency that oversees the waterway. Almost all of that cargo went from Russia to China, and more than half was crude oil. The total volume remains a fraction of crude-oil traffic through the Suez Canal: While the northern route’s shorter distance can cut transit times by two weeks, sea ice remains a treacherous obstacle despite shrinking ice cover.
President Trump focused attention on the region recently when he proposed buying Greenland from Denmark to expand America’s Arctic presence, saying, “We need it for national security.” Greenland is strategically located and rich in rare-earth elements, the raw minerals used to make everything from smartphones to jet fighters.
Russia leads
Melting sea ice is easing access to those critical minerals. But Russia also leads in tapping Arctic riches. Part of its regional development began decades ago. Russia’s Arctic already contributes roughly 10 per cent of its gross domestic product, including 17 per cent of oil sales, 80 per cent of natural gas and one-third of all fishing.
Alaska accounted for only 0.2 per cent of US GDP in 2023, and Canada’s northern territories also made up less than one per cent of the country’s economic activity.
Russia also has laid claim to yet-uncharted resources on the Arctic seabed. Moscow’s military has collected geographical evidence to support Moscow’s argument that the underwater Lomonosov Ridge—which is also claimed by Denmark and Canada and potentially rich in oil and natural gas—is part of Russian territory. Moscow has provided maps of the ocean floor drawn up by the military and Russian scientists to a commission of the United Nations, which is judging the competing claims. Despite lack of a decision on ownership of the ridge, Russia has increasingly carried out tests, mapping out sea currents around it and taking soil samples.
The US and Canada plan to jointly buy more icebreakers to police the region. The US has only three polar icebreakers, one of which is 50 years old and another that was sidelined last year after an onboard fire. The US Coast Guard in December acquired a secondhand commercial icebreaker, with plans to start Arctic operations next year.
Three-dozen icebreakers
Russia has three-dozen icebreakers, many of them nuclear powered, providing more power and long endurance at sea. China, whose northernmost point is more than 900 miles from the Arctic Circle, sent three polar icebreakers to the region last year.
China has long sought a greater role in the Arctic, where the country’s leadership believes melting ice will open up economic opportunities but also increase security risks.
In 2018, China declared itself a “near Arctic” nation and an “important stakeholder in Arctic affairs.”
Security is now joining commerce at the forefront of Russia-China Arctic cooperation. The Chinese Coast Guard and the Russian Border Guard in October staged their first joint patrol in the Arctic. The U.S. Coast Guard, which monitored the two Chinese and two Russian ships by air, said it was the farthest north that ships from the Chinese Coast Guard had ever been spotted.
Joint patrol
In July, two Russian and two Chinese bombers flew together near Alaska, where they were intercepted by US and Canadian jet fighters. The bombers came about 200 miles from the Alaskan coast and did not enter US or Canadian airspace. US officials said it was the first time the two countries had carried out such a joint patrol near Alaska.
In 2023, ships from the Russian and Chinese navies jointly patrolled near Alaska, which was considered the largest such flotilla to approach American shores, although they never entered US territorial waters.
According to the article carried by MSN originally published in WSJ further states, China and Russia now have “comprehensive” Arctic cooperation, said Liu Nengye, an associate professor at Singapore Management University, who researches polar law. “It’s resources, it’s shipping, it’s scientific research, it’s military drills,” he said.
