PHNOM PENH: A research fellow at the Cambodian Center for Regional Studies says a military pact between Russia and North Korea could escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula while threatening to draw more countries into Russia’s war in Ukraine.
Sokvy Rim in an article said that recent developments will seek more attention from the US, diverting its focus on the conflict in Ukraine.
He noted on June 19, Russian President Vladimir Putin paid an official visit to North Korea and held a summit with its leader Kim Jong Un.
The researcher noted as the US and other Western countries voiced concerns about the visit, Russia and North Korea have boosted their ties to the level of comprehensive strategic partnership, the highest level of Russian foreign relations.
He said the relationship includes a mutual defence assistance agreement, under which the two countries will provide military and other assistance by all means at their disposal in the event of armed aggression from other states.
The expert added the treaty would enhance military ties and increase the prospect of the transfer of military technology and weapons between Pyongyang and Moscow. He said this will further intensify tensions on the Korean Peninsula, as well as escalate Russia’s Ukraine war.
“First and foremost, the military pact could further escalate tensions on the peninsula by encouraging Pyongyang to pursue more dangerous moves. The North Korean regime has become increasingly provocative following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the strengthening of Moscow-Pyongyang relations,” the researcher said.
He recalled that in 2022, North Korea launched a larger number of missiles than ever before, while also building additional guard posts and conducting military drills along its border with South Korea, an action that is viewed to be a violation of the “September 19 Military Agreement.” The agreement was aimed at reducing tensions on the peninsula.
Pyongyang an arms supplier
The foreign affairs expert believed that although Kim visited Russia and met with Putin in September 2023, it is believed that Pyongyang has been supplying weapons to Russia since 2022. He noted the recent visit, however, resulted in the further shipment of North Korean arms to Russia in exchange for food, fuel, and other modern military technology.
Sokvy Rim viewed Putin’s visit certainly showcased the stretching of ties between the two countries, but may go beyond mere symbolism. “For Pyongyang, the military pact could significantly contribute to North Korea’s confrontational actions against the US, South Korea, and Japan,” said the analyst.
He viewed in one way, it allows North Korea access to food, fuel, and modern technologies from Russia, thus enhancing North Korea’s military capability. He said the pact moves North Korea’s actions into line with Russia’s self-proclaimed struggle against “US pressure, blackmail and military threats”.
The expert warned the military pact between North Korea and Russia may escalate Russia’s Ukraine war into other regions, including East Asia. “The mutual defence pact between North Korea and Russia could make Pyongyang a major recipient of Russia’s weapons. Without a doubt, North Korea will be far more dangerous with modern weapons and technology,” he said.
He believed Russia is aiming to turn East Asia into another frontline of confrontation, thus diverting the US’ attention from Ukraine to the Korean Peninsula.
Sokvy Rim in the article said the mutual defence agreement has put several other nations in the region on high alert, especially South Korea and Japan.
He said these recent developments will demand more of the US’ attention, diverting its focus on the conflict in Ukraine. “Overall, the military agreement between Russia and North Korea has served to escalate tensions on the Korean Peninsula, while threatening to draw more countries into Russia’s war in Ukraine.,” he noted.
