ISLAMABAD: A study published by a global think tank looks at what it calls the “new normal” of diplomatic engagement with the Taliban.
The report published by The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) titled, “Towards the Reintegration of Afghanistan into the International Community” states that the international community’s “non-recognition” approach has been undermined by the new normal of increased diplomatic engagement, and “creeping normalization” is occurring as neighbouring nations, particularly those in Central Asia, are required to uphold fundamental ties with Afghanistan.
From regime change to transformation
The report states that since the Taliban’s return to power in August 2021, no nation has formally recognised its government, awaiting progress on inclusivity, counter-terrorism and women’s rights. However, as foreign engagement grows, a “new normal” has emerged, with increased diplomatic presence in Kabul and Taliban officials abroad. Western focus has shifted from regime change to transformation, relying on regional actors and discreet diplomacy to nudge the Taliban towards international reintegration.
“New normal”
According to the report, the absence of formal diplomatic recognition of the regime is in contrast to the Taliban’s previous time in power (1996–2001), when it was formally recognised by Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). However, the new normal of expanded diplomatic engagement has had the cumulative effect of eroding the “non-recognition” approach of the international community, and “creeping normalisation” is taking place as neighbouring countries – especially in Central Asia – need to maintain basic relations with Afghanistan.
“Creeping normalisation”
As of July 2024, 11 countries had appointed ambassadors in Kabul, including China, Iran, Japan, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Uzbekistan, while several regional countries had chargés d’affaires (CDAs), including India, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan and Tajikistan. Iran, Pakistan, Tajikistan and Turkiye also had a consular presence in other major cities in Afghanistan; only Iran and Pakistan had a consular presence in Kandahar. India reopened its embassy in Kabul in June 2022, headed by a CDA, the report states.
According to the IISS report, the US and the United Kingdom engage with Afghanistan through missions in Doha, Qatar, while others, such as Belgium and Sri Lanka, do so through their embassies in Islamabad, Pakistan. The advantages of having a diplomatic presence in Afghanistan are many, including consistent engagement with the Taliban leadership in Kabul – even as access to the supreme leader in Kandahar is extremely limited – and being able to oversee humanitarian aid and trade relations. The compromise is that re-establishing a permanent diplomatic presence in Kabul would confer legitimacy on the Taliban and would mean effective diplomatic recognition of the regime.
Way forward
The IISS report concludes by stating: In light of the new normal of diplomatic engagement with the Taliban, a focus on quiet diplomacy through the convening of private and confidential Track 1.5 dialogues appears to be the most effective way to start the process.
What is track 1.5 dialogues?
The report adds, to be successful, this approach would require informal outreach to the Taliban leaders based in both Kandahar and Kabul to ensure the participation of Taliban officials and influential representatives. The right mix of non-Taliban Afghans from various ethnic backgrounds including the Pashtuns, Tajiks, Hazara and Uzbeks, as well as women, in such dialogues will need to be sensitively crafted. Influential international independent think tanks may be the most credible entities to facilitate such small, private and strictly confidential dialogues, the report suggests.
