ST LUCIA: Afghanistan’s mother of all upset victory against Australia has intensified Group 1 of the Super Eight stage of the T20 World Cup 2024 and more interested and changed the qualification scenarios for the semifinals.
The group is now wide open for all teams to advance based on the results of the two remaining matches. However, the rain forecast for tomorrow’s must-win game between Australia and India at the Daren Sammy Stadium in St Lucia has added further intrigue to Group 1.
Qualification Scenarios
Here is a breakdown of the qualification scenarios based on the results of the remaining two matches:
Scenario 1: If Australia and Afghanistan Win
In this case, three teams will end with four points on table. If Australia win by a run, Afghanistan must win by 36 runs margin against Bangladesh to surpass Australia on net run rate to make into semi. If Australia win a run-chase off the last ball, Afghanistan will have to win their match in 15.4 overs or sooner (assuming first-innings scores of 160).
For Australia to knock out India, they need to beat them by a considerable margin (41 runs). Similarly, Afghanistan must defeat Bangladesh by at least 83 runs.
Scenario 2: India and Bangladesh Win
India will lead the group with six points. The other three teams will have two points each, and net run rate (NRR) will determine the second semifinalist.
Australia currently has the best NRR among the three teams. Even if Afghanistan loses narrowly, Australia must lose by a significant margin (31 runs) to slip below Afghanistan on NRR.
Bangladesh needs a win by 31 runs and Australia to lose by 55 runs to secure the second spot in the group.
Scenario 3: Australia and Bangladesh Win
India and Australia will qualify with four points each, leaving Afghanistan and Bangladesh with two points.
Scenario 4: India and Afghanistan Win
India and Afghanistan will qualify with six and four points, respectively.
These scenarios illustrate the tense competition and complex dynamics at play as the tournament heads towards its climax.
Scenario 5: If India vs Australia match Abandoned
The forecasts aren’t promising for the Australia vs India match. A rainout would favor India as both teams would share points. Then, with five points on the table, India would qualify for the semifinals, while Australia, with three points, would need Afghanistan to lose to Bangladesh to secure a spot in the semis.
