ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia: The escalating tensions between Ethiopia and Somalia threaten to destabilize the fragile Horn of Africa.
The unrest intensified earlier this year when Ethiopia announced plans to lease a coastal area from Somaliland—an autonomous region of Somalia seeking independence since 1991. This decision has further strained relations, as Somalia does not recognize Somaliland’s claims, prompting it to strengthen ties with Egypt, Ethiopia’s regional rival.
Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamoud recently unveiled a military agreement with Egypt, which has included two significant arms shipments to Somalia. Analysts express concern that the influx of weapons into a nation already flooded with arms could lead to a deterioration of security. Omar Mahmood from the International Crisis Group noted the risks posed by weak controls and deep-seated mistrust within Somalia.
Additionally, Somalia has threatened to expel Ethiopian troops who have been part of an African Union mission against Al-Shabaab since 2007, which could lead to a security vacuum beneficial to the insurgents. The potential withdrawal of approximately 10,000 Ethiopian soldiers raises alarms in areas most affected by Al-Shabaab violence. Experts emphasize that without cooperation between Ethiopia and Somalia, Al-Shabaab stands to gain from any security lapses.
Despite diplomatic efforts, including recent talks hosted by Turkey, little progress has been made. Analysts caution that while full-scale conflict may be unlikely, the situation remains volatile, with new provocations—such as accusations against Ethiopia for supplying weapons to Puntland—further complicating the landscape.
