WASHINGTON: Advisers to US President-elect Donald Trump are reportedly formulating a comprehensive sanctions strategy to facilitate a potential Russia-Ukraine diplomatic deal in the coming days, Bloomberg reported on Thursday.
The plan explores options ranging from easing restrictions on Russian oil producers as goodwill measures to intensifying sanctions to increase leverage.
Simultaneously, Trump’s team is devising policies to exert pressure on Iran and Venezuela, signalling a more assertive approach to global geopolitical challenges, Bloomberg reported.
The outgoing Biden administration enacted the most significant sanctions on Russia’s oil trade by any Western power to date, raising questions about how Trump will approach these measures given his pledge to swiftly end the war in Ukraine.
The Trump team is reportedly considering two main strategies. One option, if the administration believes a resolution to the Ukraine war is within reach, involves implementing goodwill measures to support sanctioned Russian oil producers, potentially facilitating a peace agreement. However, the second approach would intensify the existing sanctions, increasing pressure to gain greater leverage.
The Trump team’s plans are in the early stages and would depend on the president-elect himself. Last week, Trump said a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin was being set up, raising the prospect of talks to end the war.
Bloomberg reported that the strategy discussions include some of Trump’s cabinet nominees as well as former sanctions officials in his first administration. Several conservative think tanks are also being concluded.
Trump’s advisers will ultimately be taking the issues of avoiding major supply and price disruptions to the oil market at a time when the US has placed sanctions on three of the world’s top producers.
On Wednesday, US officials implemented measures to complicate Trump’s ability to unilaterally lift certain sanctions on Russia. Several entities were re-designated, requiring the president to notify Congress before removing restrictions, potentially prompting a vote of disapproval if lawmakers oppose the decision.
For the Trump administration, a more aggressive stance toward Russia could involve stricter enforcement of secondary sanctions on oil trading, targeting European shipping companies and Asian buyers. Another potential strategy includes advocating for more assertive actions against tankers transporting Russian oil through critical chokepoints in Denmark and Turkey.
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The Trump team is also assessing the policy of sanctions for Iran and Venezuela. There’s a general consensus among key advisers of Trump to return to a full maximum pressure strategy targeting Tehran, starting with more sanctions that target major players in the oil industry.
The situation is more complicated in Venezuela, where long-time ruler Nicolas Maduro just got sworn in for another term. Maduro survived the Trump administration’s maximum pressure strategy, even as it curbed the nation’s oil exports.
Mauricio Claver-Carone, an influential adviser during Trump’s first term, will be returning to a prominent role in Latin America, and there’s a desire to launch a more aggressive policy he helped steer around 2019 when the US stopped recognising Maduro as the legitimate president of Venezuela.