LONDON: The UK’s Labour Party is poised for a historic victory in the upcoming general election, according to two newly released polls on Wednesday. The surveys, conducted by YouGov and Savanta/Electoral Calculus, suggest Labour could secure a record-breaking number of seats, while the incumbent Conservative Party faces an unprecedented defeat.
With just over two weeks remaining until voters head to the polls, the latest nationwide surveys show Labour is set to win between 425 and 516 out of 650 seats. Achieving either result would mark the party’s best-ever return of Members of Parliament (MPs) in a general election.
In stark contrast, the polls predict a catastrophic outcome for the Conservatives, who have been in power since 2010. One survey estimates the Tories could win as few as 53 seats. The Savanta/Electoral Calculus survey for the Daily Telegraph forecasts that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak could become the first sitting UK prime minister ever to lose their seat in a general election.
The survey also predicts that three-quarters of Sunak’s cabinet may lose their seats, potentially handing Labour a majority of 382 seats—more than double the advantage enjoyed by former Prime Minister Tony Blair in his 1997 landslide victory.
Additionally, the poll indicates that the centrist Liberal Democrats may win just three seats fewer than the Conservatives, with a projected total of 50 seats. The Scottish National Party (SNP) is also expected to lose dozens of seats in Scotland.
The YouGov survey, meanwhile, predicts an even worse outcome for the Conservatives, estimating they will win only 108 constituencies. This represents a drop of 32 seats from its previous prediction two weeks ago, reflecting the negative perception of the Tories’ election campaign.
If the Conservatives win only 108 seats, it would be their lowest number in nearly 200 years of contesting UK elections. Sunak has been widely criticized for his lackluster and error-prone campaign, including a controversial early departure from D-Day commemoration events in France earlier this month.
In contrast, Labour leader Keir Starmer has adopted a cautious approach, aiming to protect his party’s lead in the polls. If Labour prevails on July 4, Starmer is set to become the next Prime Minister.
The YouGov survey also indicates that Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party is on course to win five seats, including the Clacton constituency in eastern England, where Farage is standing. Farage has expressed his intention to coopt what remains of the Conservative party if he is elected and the Tories fare poorly on election day.
