GENEVA: The return of the cooling La Nina weather phenomenon this year should help lower temperatures slightly after months of global heat records, according to the United Nations’ weather agency.
This cooling effect is anticipated in the coming months as the warming El Nino pattern, which has contributed to increased global temperatures and extreme weather since mid-2023, shows signs of ending, the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO) stated in its latest update.
However, the WMO cautioned that global temperatures will continue to rise in the long term due to human-induced climate change, which exacerbates extreme weather and disrupts seasonal rainfall and temperature patterns. La Nina refers to the cooling of ocean surface temperatures across large areas of the tropical Pacific Ocean, accompanied by changes in winds, rainfall, and atmospheric pressure. In many regions, particularly the tropics, La Nina has the opposite climate impacts of El Nino, which warms ocean surfaces, causing drought in some areas and heavy rains in others.
The WMO indicated a “60 percent” chance of La Nina conditions from July to September and a “70 percent” likelihood from August to November. The probability of El Nino redeveloping is negligible, it added.
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Every month since El Nino’s return in June 2023 has set a new high-temperature record, making 2023 the warmest year on record globally. The WMO emphasized that the planet will continue to warm due to greenhouse gases from fossil fuel use. “The end of El Nino does not mean a pause in long-term climate change, as our planet will continue to warm due to heat-trapping greenhouse gases,” said WMO deputy secretary general Ko Barrett. “Exceptionally high sea surface temperatures will continue to play an important role in the coming months.”
Most of the excess heat from climate change is stored in the oceans. The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has already included the expected La Nina in its forecasts for this year’s Atlantic hurricane season, predicting four to seven major hurricanes between June and November. The NOAA attributed this above-normal hurricane activity to factors such as near-record warm Atlantic Ocean temperatures, the development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and less wind shear.
The WMO noted that the past nine years have been the warmest on record, despite the cooling influence of a La Nina event from 2020 to early 2023. The recent El Nino, which peaked in December, was among the five strongest recorded. “Our weather will continue to be more extreme due to the extra heat and moisture in our atmosphere,” Barrett said.
The WMO has prioritized ensuring global coverage by early warning systems by 2027, particularly in less equipped regions like Africa. “Seasonal forecasts for El Nino and La Nina, and their anticipated impacts on global climate patterns, are crucial tools for informing early warnings and early action,” Barrett said.
