NEW YORK: The United Nations warned on Wednesday that there is an 80 percent chance of Earth’s temperatures temporarily surpassing the critical threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius within the next five years. This prediction, made by the UN’s World Meteorological Organization (WMO), underscores the urgent need for accelerated action to combat climate change.
The 2015 Paris Climate Accords aimed to limit global temperature increase to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, signifying a long-term objective over decades. However, the WMO’s latest report indicates a concerning trend, with the likelihood of breaching this limit steadily rising since 2015, when the chance was close to zero.
Highlighting the severity of the situation, the WMO’s report coincided with findings from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, revealing that May 2024 was the hottest May on record. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres drew parallels between humanity’s impact on the planet and the catastrophic meteor that led to the extinction of the dinosaurs.
“There is an 80 percent likelihood that the annual average global temperature will temporarily exceed 1.5C above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years,” WMO said.
WMO’s Deputy Chief, Ko Barrett, emphasized the urgency of the situation, noting that climate shifts are already wreaking havoc worldwide, triggering extreme weather events, flooding, droughts, and the rapid melting of glaciers.
Barrett warned that while temporary breaches of the 1.5-degree Celsius threshold do not imply permanent loss of the goal. The trajectory of temperature increase indicates a record-breaking warming trend, with 2023 declared as the hottest year on record, and projections suggesting even higher temperatures in the coming years.
According to WMO forecasts, mean near-surface temperatures for the years between 2024 and 2028 are expected to surpass pre-industrial levels by 1.1-1.9 degrees Celsius. The organization also highlighted that the past 12 months, from June 2023 to May 2024, witnessed the highest global temperatures on record.
And it said there was now an 86-percent chance that one of the years between 2024 and 2028 would unseat 2023 as the annual record-holder.
It also said there was a 90-percent likelihood that the mean temperature for 2024-2028 would be higher than that over the past five-year period. “We are way off track to meet the goals set in the Paris Agreement,” Barrett said.
